Predictions are really hard to make, especially about the future
Posted by: Administrator in Science & Technology
If we can’t trust the pundits foisted on us by the media, whom can we trust? We should look for experts who do not start from the assumption that some Big Idea is correct.
As predictions go, it was truly disturbing – made all the more so by the authority of the source.
In 1989, Dr Mustafa Tolba, the head of the UN Environment Program (Unep), warned that over the coming years as many as 50 million refugees would be wandering the globe to escape the ravages of climate change.
By 2005, Unep felt confident enough to say the 50 million mark would be reached “by 2010″. Other experts agreed, among them the celebrated environmentalist Professor Norman Myers of Oxford University.
So where are they? In a word, nowhere. A recent study by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) in England found no evidence of any mass migration caused by climate change.
On the contrary, it suggested that – unsurprisingly – people prefer to stay in their own country in the face of environmental upheaval.
Unep has tried to disown the prediction, but has succeeded only in sparking a media furor after being caught removing graphics clearly stating “50 million climate refugees by 2010″ from its website.
It looks like the agency is learning the truth of the ancient Chinese proverb that “prediction is very difficult – especially of the future”.
It’s unlikely to give up making predictions, though: after all, that’s what expert groups are supposed to do. But as a fascinating new survey of the prediction business shows, we should all be much more skeptical about forecasts – especially those made by experts.
