http://www.cnn.com/2010/SHOWBIZ/Movies/03/05/oscar.predictions/

The Academy's new first-past-50-percent voting system gives the underdog a real chance. Assuming no film gets 51 percent straight off the bat, the film with the lowest number of votes is eliminated after the first round, and that film's ballots' second choices come into play. It wouldn't be surprising if supporters of "An Education," "The Blind Side" and "Precious" rated the more Oscar-friendly "Hurt Locker" significantly above "Avatar."

It could be a squeaker, but we'll never know, because the Academy won't disclose the margin of victory (though it might make better TV if it did).

So, I still expect "Avatar" to come away with best picture. This blockbuster is a remarkable accomplishment technically and artistically, it plays to a certain Hollywood liberalism and it helps the industry feel more confident about the future at a time when it's vulnerable -- a potent combination.

TRACKER-Wrong

Best director

It never makes sense when the Academy decides the best director didn't make the best picture, but of course it often happens. This year, I expect Kathryn Bigelow

TRACKER-Right

Best actress: Meryl Streep ("Julie & Julia") TRACKER-Wrong

Best actor: Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart" TRACKER-Right

Best supporting actress: Mo'Nique ("Precious") TRACKER-Right

Best supporting actor: Christoph Waltz- Inglourious Basterds TRACKER-Right